Sunday, October 5, 2008

ICICI BANK!!!

ICICI BANK has been a much battered stock off late and rumors were flying thick and fast that this might be our first casualty in India courtesy sub prime fiasco! Well I don’t know the inside story but lets see what the charts have to reveal to us.

The weekly chart below had a nice H&S top which broke down and price snapped back towards the neckline only to fail and head back lower once again. Now the status quo is that the price is way below the value zone so an attempt to go back to the MA’s is not ruled out. Adding to this short term bullish argument is the MACD histogram shown in the lower pane, it seems to be tracing a triple bullish divergence. In the last three weeks amid much muck floating around on ICICI BANK the bears haven’t really been able to push the MACD histogram below zero line. The weekly support looks good at 425/435, where as the overhead resistances lay at 550/600/650.

The daily chart below also had a nice H&S continuation pattern which has achieved its logical target. The price is inside the falling channel hinting a drift to the lower end, though right now the price is already hugging the lower channel line and far away from the MA’s, shorting won’t bring in much in way of profits.

My take on ICICI would be since both the weekly and Daily have red impulse bars this only warrants a short trade (and I am not keen on shorting it!), therefore I would wait for the daily bar to turn blue at least for me to take a small swing trade (shoot and scoot types) against the weekly RED bar. A buy above with 515 with a SL, a point below 500 is such one trade!

"If opportunity doesn't knock build a door."

Milton Berle





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