Today was a surprise day! With the kind of moves we had made on Friday many were expecting a severe gap down and continuation to the down side. With a weak Dow Nifty did look vulnerable. After testing the Friday’s low and retesting again, we finally build the momentum to start the up move. Nifty gave a couple of chances to go long. Our 4050 still stays the main battle ground between the Bulls and the Bears for closing. Whereas another important level of 4110/20, is required to be taken out by the Bulls decisively, to show their strength. The Daily chart on the right shows a Doji. So we are still confused. No change in status quo since Friday. I still maintain the same view “I wouldn’t short till we break 3990 convincingly and wouldn’t like to go long till we close above 4050 on EOD.”
I am putting 2 charts of Nifty Futures below. These were ego boosters after I goofed up on Friday. On the advice of a good friend I used my eyeQ rather than IQ and voila….I had a good trade and it even met its target to the last T!!!!
"First say to yourself what you would be; and then do what you have to do."
Epictetus
hi
ReplyDeleteThere was negative divergences in 5 min chart(ROC) both on Friday & Monday...and good shorting chance..Subsequently towards the end of the day positive divergences which led to a bounce at the end of the day and carried into the next day. As shown in your charts, 5 min macd gives a buy at the end of the day.Taking the daily and hourly set up which is in sell mode, i think we should look for selling opportunities. Spreads are getting narrower.H & S patterns can be a continuing patterns also.
Always looking forward to your charts and simple interpretations..Thanks.
Ilango
Further to my observations, I like to add that the bottom is seldom made with rising channel. This kind of correction is generally associated with the pause (Correction) in the continuation of the trend(Down here).The falls are sharp but the corrections are slow and laborious.Break of 4004 would lead us to new lows.I like to add here 5 D of Stockastcs have given immense help in showing the direction of the shortterm trend and it has turned down since Fri close.So mkt should be down till Thu or Fri (Minimum).As per EW, we have seen a 1st wave dn from 4215 to 4004 and a clear ABC up to 4117 and the 3rd has started down.
ReplyDeleteIlango
Ilango
justnifty Hi
ReplyDeleteYou are right in your interpretation. Yes I also agree with H&S is sometimes a continuation pattern.A such example was the DLF daily chart. I had mentioned it in my blog some time back when DLF made a H&S after a sustained down move. The H&S therefore was just a pause and then DLF proceeded again to the south!!!
Regards
ilango Hi,
ReplyDeleteBingo!!! you were dot on your 4004 break.Got urself a new low..brilliant analysis. I have to admit that I don't know abc of Elliots so will like your vies more often on that. Where does the c leg end???
Regards