Thursday, April 3, 2008

Tails I Win...Heads You Loose !!!



Nothing is making sense now a days…we have feeling of déjà vu every time we see an inverse H&S…they seem to be in plenty now!!! Today we had a flattish opening. We made a swing high, went down tested the lows of the day and finally had a small triangle breakout. The breakout culminated in a Double Top (though a small one) and we far more exceeded the target to the downside. In the end it was just a tug of war between the Bulls and the Bears, where the Bulls managed to defend the lows of the day.

It’s getting more and more difficult to keep our bias intact. Though intraday movements are leaving one disturbed and confused, there is some solace in the daily charts (that is just for the time being!!!). In the daily chart of Nifty given below we can see that the MA crossover between the 50 period MA and the 200 period MA (circled area in the chart, also refer to my earlier post titled “Death Cross”) has already taken place and that point will be eagerly watched by both the camps. It’s still a matter of concern that we are failing to crossover over 50 period MA (we need to overcome this obstacle if we ever have to try and touch 200 period MA).Now for the point which provides some optimism. Our small little inverse H&S is still not threatened. In fact it now has a prettier Ascending Triangle to it!!!

Just a curious observation, though the overhead resistance for time being is 4962 and 5090, what’s really scary is that the REAL SUPPORT on the downside is at 4380. (Scared???well I am!!!). Leaving you with a one liner I read somewhere:

Don’t Be An Optimist Or A Pessimist Just Be A Realist!!!!

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