Weekend Views On Nifty !

Friday saw a very subdued movement in the Nifty, with weak Asian cues and none positives coming in from the West, our Index held out on its own. With negative headwinds from China and weak rest of the markets Nifty was kinda strongest Index performing!!!

Posted below is the Daily chart and some insights from it are;

1. The long term trend still down.
2. The intermediate trend (is up) marked in Red and Blue arrows signifies HL and HH still in play.
3. The last candle sort of hammer, where the bulls took charge right back after testing the 50 EMA (the yellow line).
4. Price is precariously positioned between the confluence of 20/200 EMA and 50 EMA.
5. The confluence of 20/200 at approx 7770-75 is also incidentaly the 20 EMA on the monthly chart.

Monday might see a flat to slight gap up opening if all bodes well. On the daily chart there is almost a 100 point range between the overhead resistance and support below and a decisive break of this range with conviction will set the tone for future movement/direction of Nifty.

Right Now How are You Trading?.....Doji Style????

NF 15 Minutes Chart...A Gap down and a 30 Pointer Range Established !

Edit and Follow-up post after market closing hours:

NF Chart Views !!!!

The Daily Drama;

As you can see from the chart below the NF traded in a tight range as there was no clear clues from the East as well as the West but what it did BEST was to hold its ground !!!. In the intermediate uptrend which appears to hold water so far the NF tried and tested the resistance provided by the confluence of 20/200 EMA and still held above the 50 EMA.

The best trend identification ; sequence of  high and higher high accompanied by higher low is still visible on the daily chart and like I said above so far the intermediate uptrend holds water....

Another thing I want to point is that there seems to be a hint of Hidden Divergence (Bullish) on the daily chart as marked on the chart with red dotted lines.

The Hourly Picture;

The hourly shows that the GAP that NF filled was the reason it was subdued. Price action does test and retest gap areas. Plus here also you will see that small redline was the 200 EMA on the hourly charts.

The 15 Minute Break;

The chart below lucidly illustrates the concept of old supports turn to resistances.

So if one were to see what does one get????

 Well you get the broader view, the hourly will give you support and resi levels to plan your trade and the 15 minute chart would give you the entry !!!

Its a buy between 7780-7800 with an immediate target of 7830 which might stall the move up for sometime and would require a push accompanied by volumes. Above that its NF's play ground or I must say its upto the Bulls to show their Mojo!!!.

Howsoever a break of today low might result in a sudden 50 pointer drop before any buying comes in.

I have always stressed that its not important to trade daily or trade for the sake of trading. Whatever one does he or she shall make sure as soon as you place your trade, the next second one should place the STOP !!!!

Nifty Future Daily Views !!!

Nifty Views !!!!

What you see above is the Daily Chart of Nifty. Some plain simple observations;

1. On Daily we are clearly in a downtrend and the recent uptrend can be simply called an intermediate uptrend. For the Purists it can be a bearsih flag in the making and might be an onset for next leg down !!!

2. The Fibbonacci lovers would rejoice how the price reacted at;

     (a). 33.33 retracemnt levels found resistance then conquered it and then retested it before the leg up.
     (b). Similarly now 50 was tested and price retreaded from there.

3. The area marked in the white ellipse is of great significance vis a vis price action. There is a lot of confluence of things out there. There is the 50% fib resi. There is the old price resi now support zone.
Ofcourse there is a Gap fill to be done. And most importantly there is the 200 EMA and 20/50 Ema congregating there for a crossover. Price action gets volatile whenever a major EMA (200 EMA in this case) is breached or tested !!!

As far as the Price keeps on making HL and HH trade in the direction of the trend.

Always remember in Technical Analysis we deal with probabilities and not certainities and as the adage goes trend is your best friend the remeber STOP LOSS is like your WIFE !!! You may want to hold on to her no matter what !!!!

Cheers !

I will be writing AGAIN!!!

Yup,

I might just revive this blog back!!!

I do love TA and most importantly I enjoy writing...

A sabbatical too long.....

Hope I get back into the groove soon !!!

Till then cheers....!